Predictions for every bowl game ahead of Week Zero.
Brad Crawford
Will Georgia three-peat? Can the Big Ten again place two in the College Football Playoff? These questions will soon be answered during the 2023 college football season and with that, it's time for preseason bowl projections across the sport.
Postseason predictions this time of year are a shot in the dark, but some teams that instill more confidence than others. Many of the season's most important matchups happen in the SEC and Big Ten, two conference that will produce as many as a half-dozen contenders.
Keep in mind that, outside of the New Year's Six and certain contract bowl games, ESPN and bowl organizers have a lot of control over who goes where in the smaller-tier games. Factors such as travel considerations and ratings based on matchups play a big role in determining which teams go to which bowls. These projections are subject to change and will be updated weekly throughout the regular season.
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Ahead of the 2023 season, here are updated bowl projections:
Los AngelesBowl
Projected matchup:San Diego State vs. Arizona
Here is a team in the Pac-12 that does not get enough attention, but it deserves some. Arizona lost WR1 Dorian Singer to USC in the portal, but the Wildcats do welcome back their top touchdown scorer in running back Michael Wiley and this offense is going to be capable of scoring a lot of points. They press the issue on that side of the football.
New MexicoBowl
Projected matchup: Air Force vs. WKU
Lending Tree Bowl
Projected matchup:Georgia Southern vs. Toledo
Potato Bowl
Projected matchup:San Jose State vs. Miami (Ohio)
FriscoBowl
Projected matchup:Cincinnati vs. SMU
Myrtle BeachBowl
Projected matchup:FAU vs. Troy
FenwayBowl
Projected matchup: Wake Forestvs.Boise State
New OrleansBowl
Projected matchup:Liberty vs.South Alabama
Boca Raton Bowl
Projected matchup:Appalachian State vs.UAB
Cure Bowl
Projected matchup: Army vs. James Madison
Armed ForcesBowl
Projected matchup:Kansas vs.Middle Tennessee
Who knows if the Jayhawks continue their climb, but with Jalon Daniels at quarterback, this Kansas team is a nightmare to defend for other Big 12 teams. There are some holes on the roster that still need to be addressed, but this two-deep should get back to bowl season and perhaps win a postseason game.
Las VegasBowl
Projected matchup:Nebraskavs. UCLA
For Nebraska, this marks substantial development under Matt Rhule, who is tasked with bringing the Huskers back to respectability after the horrors under Scott Frost. Another team with a transfer starter under center, Georgia Tech's Jeff Sims may finally get a chance to play in a bowl game.
IndependenceBowl
Projected matchup:UCFvs. Washington State
GasparillaBowl
Projected matchup:Mississippi State vs.BYU
Mississippi State faces a challenging slate during Zach Arnett's first season, but the Bulldogs are more than capable of getting to bowl eligibility despite bringing up the rear of the SEC West. Mississippi State ditched the Air Raid offense for a more pro-style look, which caused some to question production capabilities.
HawaiiBowl
Projected matchup:UTSA vs. Utah State
BahamasBowl
Projected matchup:North Texasvs. Ohio
Quick LaneBowl
Projected matchup: Purduevs. Western Michigan
Winning six games would be a big deal for Ryan Walters at Purdue given his inheritance. Jeff Brohm left the Boilermakers for his alma-mater and credit the decision-makers for moving quick on their guy. September could determine where this team stands under its new regime. There are winnable games in the first month and then there are games that could push Purdue to the next level nearing the midseason junction.
CamelliaBowl
Projected matchup:Eastern Michigan vs.Coastal Carolina
Guaranteed RateBowl
Projected matchup:Kansas State vs. Michigan State
Mel Tucker lost his potential starting quarterback and best play-making wide receiver to the transfer portal. Perhaps those two Spartans knew something? Michigan State only needs to get to six wins to get here and we think they can do it. Kansas State dropping this far after winning the Big 12 in 2022 would be a major fall, but there are some key pieces no longer there.
HolidayBowl
Projected matchup:NC Statevs.Washington
LibertyBowl
Projected matchup:OklahomaStatevs.Missouri
Bowl organizers and participating schools would allow this one to happen, hopefully.Missouri owns a 29-24 all-time advantage in this battle of two former Big 12 rivals, but Oklahoma State won the last meeting in 2018 (Liberty Bowl). Peeking at the Cowboys' schedule, it wouldn't be all that surprising if Mike Gundy has this team vying for a spot in the conference title game entering the final month of the season.
MilitaryBowl
Projected matchup:ECU vs.Pittsburgh
BirminghamBowl
Projected matchup:Memphis vs. Auburn
Bowl eligibility in Year 1 for Hugh Freeze on the Plains would appease the fanbase as long as there aren't many lopsided losses mixed into a .500 or 7-5 season. Auburn's not far away from being a tough out in the SEC West and the Tigers believe they've signed a few instant-impact portal players — including Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne — that bring instant competition to vital position groups.
First Responder Bowl
Projected matchup:Baylor vs.Illinois
Texas Bowl
Projected matchup: Ole Missvs.Oklahoma
Brent Venables hopes to finish with a winning record in Year 2 with the Sooners. If not, the jeers begin and they will be loud. Ole Miss could finish anywhere from a six-win floor to potentially nine wins. There's expected fluctuation here for the Rebels. Lane Kiffin against Venables would be an intriguing matchup during the postseason. These two programs only met once, an Ole Miss victory in 1999.
AlamoBowl
Projected matchup:TCU vs.Utah
PinstripeBowl
Projected matchup: Louisville vs.Maryland
Sun Bowl
Projected matchup: Oregon State vs.Miami
The Hurricanes bounce back as a contender in the ACC during Mario Cristobal's second season — or so the projection goes. Miami recruited well during the 2023 cycle and prioritized the transfer portalby filling several needs. The program has a sizable game early with Texas A&M.Oregon State could be a dark-horse threat to win the Pac-12.
Arizona Bowl
Projected matchup: Fresno State vs. Buffalo
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Projected matchup: Texas Techvs.North Carolina
The Red Raiders won eight games last fall, including four straight to end 2022 as one of the Big 12's hottest teams. North Carolina welcomes back Drake Maye, who is a Heisman candidate and could be in line to be the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 1 overall if he's able to unseat USC's Caleb Williams. The Tar Heels have a challenging slate, including the season opener next week against South Carolina in Charlotte.
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Projected matchup:Duke vs.Kentucky
GatorBowl
Projected matchup:Arkansasvs.Clemson
Florida State seems to be the preseason frontrunner in the ACC, which is more than enough bulletin board material for Dabo Swinney.However, the Seminoles may have the talent edge on the offensive side of the football, which may be enough to win a pivotal early-season game in Death Valley. Swinney matched up againstSam Pittmanduring bowl season would be an appetizing matchup to say the least.
Music City Bowl
Projected matchup: South Carolina vs. Minnesota
Citrus Bowl
Projected matchup: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Orlando gets first pick of SEC teams once the New Year's Six finalizes. Since the Vols are going to finish second in the East behind Georgia, again this is a projection, Tennessee goes to the Citrus. Steve Spurrier infamously said, "you can't spell Citrus without UT" and ironically, the Vols haven't played here since the end of the 2001 season against Michigan.
ReliaQuest Bowl
Projected matchup:Texas A&Mvs.Iowa
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Oregon
Will the Fighting Irish be the best three-loss team in college football this season? It's possible if they finish 9-3 with setbacks against Ohio State, Clemson and USC. Notre Dame is familiar with the Fiesta Bowl. In fact, it seems like every time the Fighting Irish play in a "big" bowl game, this is where they're sent. New Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman's final game in front of NFL scouts would give this one some extra meaning for the Wake Forest transfer (should he choose to play it). With Oregon, the 2023 schedule is loaded with potential pitfalls during atreacherous Pac-12 season, but 10 wins should get Bo Nix and Dan Lanning to the New Year's Six.
Cotton Bowl: LSU vs. USC
Back to the Cotton for USC, this time as Pac-12 champions? It is a possibility. And if the Trojans can get through a treacherous slate unbeaten, theyplay in the conference title game with a playoff berth on the line. Another potential double digit-win season for LSU is coming for Brian Kelly in Year 2, but not putting this team in the playoff just yet as the SEC champion. If the Tigers get to Atlanta 12-0, however, they can get in the final four even with a loss to projected SEC champion Georgia.
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Penn State
Do you believe in Florida State magic in 2023? This elite roster is too deep to ignore. Most of all, the Seminoles have a veteran leader at quarterback better than nearly all of his peers nationally. The opener against LSU could spring board this team to a potential playoff berth if the Seminoles can run the table in conference play, including a road win at Clemson. Penn State's two biggest games are Michigan and Ohio State. A split against that pair could get the Nittany Lions closer to the playoff.
Peach Bowl: Alabama vs. Tulane
The Crimson Tide may fail to reach the playoff thanks to two regular-season losses (projected). And Nick Saban will not be happy with the committee. Their reward? A possible matchup with the Group of Five champion.Think Tulane or Boise State in this spot. Michael Pratt's back for the Green Wave, but that team did lose several key pieces from last year's historical run under Willie Fritz. Alabama's 2023 season could fall short of national title aspirationsif the lingeringquarterback situationisn't solved with a difference-maker in place coming out of fall camp.
CFB Playoff semifinal (Sugar Bowl): No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Michigan
This again? The Bulldogs and Wolverines played two years ago down in Miami and Georgia steamrolled Jim Harbaugh's team. This marks Michigan's third-straight trip to the playoff and the Wolverines have not won a game yet. Georgiagoes for a three-peat, unprecedented in the modern era. The more things change, the more they stay the same and expect the Bulldogs to get back to the final four as the top seed once again. Have you looked at their regular season?
CFB Playoff semifinal (Rose Bowl): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Texas
With a win at Alabama in Week 2, early-season College Football Playoff buzz centers on Texas. Will the Longhorns handle the pressure if they take out the Crimson Tide? That's the biggest question. Aside from the November showdown with LSU, this is Alabama's most important game and it happens to come early for new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees and a first-year starter at quarterback. Quinn Ewers is a potential 2024 first-round draft pick, so right now, Texas has a clear advantage at the most important position on the field, unlike like last season's game. Meanwhile, second-seeded Ohio State needs no introduction.
CFB Playoff National Championship: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Three-consecutive national championshipsfor the Bulldogs? Kirby Smart's squad has to beat the Buckeyes again to do it. These two squads are stacked and if Ohio State can get through a challenging Big Ten schedule with one loss or fewer, we expect the selection committee to put the Buckeyes back in a semifinal setting. Carson Beck againstthe Buckeyes' yet-to-be-named starterin this quarterback matchup would be intriguing, along with Ryan Day trying to become the next first-time national championship-winning head coach.
